China on Harris and Trump Tech Policy
China on Harris and Trump Tech Policy
+ Shitao drunk autumn painting to take you home
The following is a guest translation from Sihao Huang, a current PhD candidate at Oxford.
Two researchers from Fudan University—renowned for its American Studies program—published an impressively detailed analysis in FT Chinese examining Trump and Harris's tech policies. As it turns out, Chinese analysts have been reading about the AI Manhattan Project, tracking the debate around Lina Khan, and even listening to the All-In Podcast [JS: god bless them…].
The analysts believe that Harris, the "AI czar," will pursue a more interventionist approach to AI regulation but will likely have a weaker hand than Biden in antitrust policies due to her active engagement with tech giants and her Californian roots. They also think she will take an "iterative strategy of checking for loopholes and filling gaps" with export controls.
In contrast, they expect Trump to run an "AI Manhattan Project" to compete against China, accelerate the development of military technology, repeal Biden's AI Executive Order, and encourage more flexible AI governance. They also see Trump as being more "radical" with export controls, blocking China's access to cloud compute and taking some action against Taiwan for ‘stealing’ America's semiconductor business. Ultimately, the two authors argue that regardless of who wins the election, "the current trend of pan-securitization in the U.S. digital technology industry is not affected by the change between the two parties." Given the ENFORCE and Remote Access Security Acts, the "march to suppress Chinese technology will continue."
Stick around till the end for a painting and some poetry by my favorite Chinese painter, Shitao.
Divergent Paths: Differences in Harris and Trump's Technology Policy Approaches
The technology policies that Harris and Trump might adopt represent two distinct paths for future U.S. technology governance. However, both share a consensus on technology policy toward China.
October 30, 2024 - Written by Yao Xu and Zhang Ao (Fudan University) for FT Chinese. Source. Translation abridged.
As candidates for the Democratic and Republican parties, Harris and Trump show significant differences in their attitudes and positions on technology policies. Harris is likely to continue Biden's technology policies, including artificial intelligence (AI) regulation, antitrust enforcement, increased taxes on the ultra-wealthy, opposition to racial and gender bias, cryptocurrency regulation, and promotion of digital equity. In contrast, Trump has explicitly stated that he will overturn Biden's AI governance policies as represented by the "Biden Executive Order," adopt relatively loose regulatory measures on the technology industry, give the green light to mergers and acquisitions, and continue tax reduction policies. Regardless of who is ultimately elected as the next U.S. president, their policy propositions will profoundly impact the global technology ecosystem and the geopolitical technology landscape.
Artificial Intelligence: Will Biden's AI Executive Order Be Abolished?
On October 30, 2023, Biden signed the Executive Order on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence, the White House's first regulation on generative artificial intelligence. It aims to strengthen federal government safety oversight of AI, calling on federal departments to review AI's impact in their specific domains and find solutions to problems within each agency, thus becoming one of America's landmark policies on AI regulation to date.
Harris is inclined to continue this executive order, strengthening government supervision and public oversight of AI. She believes AI development needs regulation to ensure public safety and interests. Analysts believe that if Harris wins the election, she may adopt a more proactive and interventionist AI regulatory policy. The federal government is expected to be encouraged to actively procure AI tools while ensuring appropriate safeguards for their use across federal agencies. Additionally, Harris will urge Congress to legislate and improve the legal framework for protecting data privacy and cybersecurity.
Harris's political career began in California, with close ties to the tech industry, and she started focusing on data privacy and security issues in the technology sector early in her political career. Since becoming vice president, Harris has earned the nickname "AI Czar" for her active leadership in AI-related affairs. "It's very important that she's from California, from the Bay Area, and has served as a politician there," said Alondra Nelson, former director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. "Silicon Valley is not unfamiliar to her." Harris has her own agenda in AI governance. "When an elderly person's healthcare plan is canceled because of an erroneous AI algorithm, isn't that a matter of survival for them?" Harris expressed concerns about AI algorithms' impact on marginalized social groups in a November 2023 speech. Harris emphasizes AI's social impact and safe development, striving to maintain a balance between technological progress and public interests.
Although she advocates stronger regulation, Harris is not as outspoken as Biden in calling for the breakup of tech giants or reshaping the current AI power structure at the federal level. As the election approaches, Harris is actively engaging with tech giants, continuously easing tensions between the Democratic Party and Silicon Valley while advancing the agenda from a middle-ground position. Box CEO Aaron Levie says Harris's positive attitude has achieved results, and "tech giant executives also need a stable leader who supports immigration and science." Levie states that as long as leaders respect technology and tech companies' own development logic, even if they implement tax and antitrust policies or strengthen AI safety supervision, they won't face strong opposition from the tech community.
Trump seeks to repeal Biden's executive order. In his campaign manifesto, Trump claimed: "We will repeal Biden's dangerous executive order, which has hindered AI innovation and imposed radical left-wing ideas on the development of this technology. Instead, Republicans will promote AI development based on free speech and human prosperity." Trump opposes excessive regulation of cutting-edge industries like AI while encouraging flexible "non-regulatory methods" such as policy guidance, pilot trials, and voluntary frameworks to minimize barriers to AI technology development and application, ultimately serving comprehensive competition with China. According to The Washington Post, in response to the Biden administration's AI executive order, the Trump team is drafting a new executive order proposing the implementation of an "AI Manhattan Project," aimed at promoting rapid development of AI technology, especially military applications, and will work to clear legal obstacles for implementation. Increased military investment in AI will benefit technology companies like Anduril and Palantir that have established good cooperation with the Pentagon. The main executives of these giants support Trump and have close ties with the Republican Party.
According to The Washington Post's exclusive report, the "AI Manhattan Project" will also create an "industry-led" agency to evaluate AI models and ensure they are protected from foreign adversaries. The plan includes a section titled "Making America Number One in AI," which proposes a strategy for the AI industry that differs significantly from the Biden administration's AI executive order. This suggests that if Trump returns, he may implement policies beneficial to Silicon Valley investors and tech giants. To win votes and realize his political agenda, Trump has become increasingly friendly toward Silicon Valley. In June of this year, Trump appeared on the "All-In Podcast" YouTube channel, hosted by well-known technology investors. After the show, Trump also participated in a fundraising event hosted by podcast co-host and former PayPal executive David Sacks. In the podcast, Trump stated that he has realized Silicon Valley's "geniuses" need more resources to promote AI development to compete with China. Chamath Palihapitiya, founder of venture capital firm Social Capital, believes Trump has gained more support in the technology industry than in the 2016 election. Trump's inclination also shows he needs to cooperate with technology elites and build a cabinet to "change the status quo."
Export Controls on Technology Industries Like Semiconductors: Will They Become More Radical?
Harris will continue the Biden administration's strategy of taking small, quick steps, gradually escalating, and fixing loopholes in the export control process for semiconductors and other sectors. The Biden administration's export control policy design around semiconductors and other fields reflects a pragmatic action strategy, which is more evident in the export control regulations issued by the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) of the U.S. Department of Commerce in October 2022 and October 2023, respectively. The former restricted the peak computing power of single chips and the data transmission performance between multiple chips, resulting in NVIDIA's most advanced GPU models A100 and H100 being banned from export to China. NVIDIA provided the Chinese market with cut-down versions A800 and H800 chips. To prevent NVIDIA from continuing to "exploit loopholes," BIS changed the restriction method in the 2023 new regulations, removing the previous "interconnection bandwidth" as an important parameter for identifying restricted chips, which directly led to the ban of A800 and H800. It can be predicted that if Harris comes to power, she will continue the iterative strategy of checking for loopholes and filling gaps, controlling and restricting some "emerging" advanced technologies while seeking a balance between blocking and suppressing China's technology industry and controlling differences.
Trump may become more radical on export controls. Based on his previous term, China was the first to be hit in semiconductor export controls under Trump. Since March 2018, when Trump launched the "301 investigation" and initiated trade and technology wars against China, the Trump administration began extensively using the BIS "Entity List," weaponizing export control regulations. Numerous technology companies, universities, and research institutions became victims, and the global supply chain suffered serious impacts. Additionally, in his last year in office, Trump targeted TikTok and WeChat's international versions, seeking to implement harsh ban measures on Chinese-based digital platforms in the United States. If Trump returns to the White House with extremely conservative vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance, he may continue using CFIUS (Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States) to restrict Chinese companies' acquisitions in semiconductors and other high-tech fields, continue restricting the export of high-computing chip products to China, and restrict exports of chip manufacturing equipment, parts, and chip design software upstream in the industrial chain, as well as computing power leasing services downstream. Beyond China as the main competitor, Trump's "America First" stance will also affect upstream and downstream interests in the semiconductor industry. On July 18, Trump commented on U.S. involvement in Taiwan's defense, saying that Taiwan "took away" U.S. chip business, and the U.S. should not act as "insurance" for Taiwan's defense. TSMC, the world's largest chip foundry, saw its stock fall that day. Overall, although Trump has shown a strong tendency toward export controls, his governance style is changeable, and if he comes to power, the scope and effectiveness of his policies remain uncertain.
Antitrust Enforcement: Can Silicon Valley and Wall Street Breathe a Sigh of Relief?
Harris may be inclined to promote antitrust regulation. On the one hand, the social impact and security development of cutting-edge technology are political priorities that Harris values highly. She tends to increase enforcement against Silicon Valley tech monopolies, believing these platforms abuse their strong market position and infringe on consumer interests, making it difficult to meet people's basic living needs. She has repeatedly spoken about the need to reduce inflation and provide more economic opportunities for all Americans. If Harris comes to power, she is expected to appoint strong law enforcers to key positions in core departments responsible for antitrust, such as the Department of Justice, Federal Trade Commission, or Federal Communications Commission. On the other hand, Harris also maintains contact with tech giants and tries to find a balance between government regulation and corporate innovation. During the 2020 election, Harris said that while strengthening regulation, the breakup of tech giants like Google should be opposed.
So far, Harris has not made a statement on how to handle antitrust issues. Wall Street hopes Harris can relax the antitrust enforcement seen during the Biden administration and create a new antitrust regulatory environment. Democratic donors such as IAC Chairman Barry Diller and LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman believe Harris's position on this issue can be adjusted. As election day approaches, Harris is also under pressure to quickly enrich her position on key policy issues, and her final stance will depend on practical political considerations. Within the Democratic camp, firm antitrust policies are favored by party progressives such as Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, who hope Harris will continue Biden's policies. Elizabeth Wilkins, former director of the Federal Trade Commission's Office of Policy Planning, believes that despite Harris's ambiguous attitude, her other work protecting families and small businesses during her vice presidency is "fully consistent with the antitrust agenda."
Trump is not very active in antitrust enforcement. During his first term, Trump was rather cold toward antitrust matters. If he comes to power, he may continue to deal with current technology antitrust enforcement cases but will still give the green light to technology mergers and acquisitions. Trump's business background makes him generally more sympathetic to the business community, and his tax cuts and trade protectionist economic policies are quite popular with tech giants and their wealthy executives and middle-class employees. Out of consideration for their own interests, the Silicon Valley technology community, known as the "liberal bastion," has recently expressed support for Trump after the shooting, causing Trump's donations from the technology community to rapidly rise and surpass those to the Democratic Party.
However, the conservative camp to which Trump belongs also has its own antitrust agenda. His deputy, Vance, has publicly praised Federal Trade Commission (FTC) Chair Lina Khan for "doing a pretty good job" in antitrust work against tech giants such as Amazon and Google, and said that large technology companies need to be restrained. In February of this year, Vance called for the breakup of Google on social media. The conservative camp tends to reduce regulatory agencies while being willing to use antitrust supervision to check and balance tech giants. The contradictions in the conservative camp's antitrust stance will also impact Trump's antitrust policy.
The March to Suppress Chinese Technology May Be Difficult to Stop
The policies that Harris and Trump may adopt regarding technology industry issues represent two different paths for America's future technology governance. However, they have formed a consensus on technology policy toward China: internally promoting innovation policies while externally pursuing technological decoupling.
On one hand, the Biden administration is strengthening its technological competition with China. Since this year, the United States has used data as its entry point and data security as its justification to implement America First policies in technology industries and infrastructure construction, intensifying the competitive situation with China. On February 28, 2024, U.S. President Biden signed Executive Order 14117, "Preventing Access to Americans' Bulk Sensitive Personal Data and United States Government-Related Data by Countries of Concern," restricting the transmission of personal data to "specific countries." Subsequently, Chinese industries such as smart vehicles and shipping have also received focused attention due to alleged data security concerns. Furthermore, the United States has also restricted China's artificial intelligence development through means such as the Enhancing National Frameworks for Overseas Restriction of Critical Exports Act (also known as the ENFORCE Act) and the cloud computing bill.
On the other hand, Trump initiated the strong suppression of China's technology industry. During his term, Trump launched a trade war with China through the "301 investigation" and quickly extended it to a technology war. Through various means such as the "Entity List," presidential executive orders, and the promotion of China-related bills, the Trump administration adopted a strategy of universal coverage and focused attacks on China's technology industry. In 2018, the Trump administration launched the so-called "China Initiative" and conducted internal reviews to prevent research results from being "stolen." According to MIT Technology Review's study of prosecuted cases, the program fabricated numerous "unfounded" cases, many of which had little connection to technology and national security, negatively impacting American scientific research's reputation. During Trump's term, China's technology industries, including semiconductors, communications technology, artificial intelligence, new materials, and digital platforms, were generally "targeted." Multiple Chinese technology companies were placed on the entity list. WeChat and TikTok were once on the verge of being banned. Huawei was particularly targeted by Trump, causing serious damage to its global supply chain. Even in his final moments before leaving the White House, Trump signed an executive order directing federal agencies to assess the security risks of Chinese-made drones in the government fleet and to prioritize the elimination of Chinese-made drones.
Although the election is approaching, the current trend of pan-securitization in the U.S. digital technology industry is not affected by the change between the two parties. The overall direction of the United States' technological containment of China will not be affected by the final election result. The difference lies in the specific implementation methods and paths. Whether it is Harris's "gradual escalation" or Trump's "extreme pressure," their policy propositions will profoundly affect the global technology ecosystem and the geopolitical structure of technology.
(Note: Yao Xu is an associate researcher at the Development Research Institute of Fudan University, and Zhang Ao is a research assistant at the Development Research Institute of Fudan University. This article only represents the authors' personal views.)
A painting to take you into the night: Shitao’s Drunk in Autumn Woods from 1702.
Exploring the theme of intoxication, Shitao makes us reel with the unsteadiness of his figures and landscape. He probably created this picture to commemorate an autumn outing in the hills with friends. The three inscriptions testify to the pleasure and pride that Shitao took in his achievement; they make it clear that the exhilaration experienced by the friends was inspired by nature, poetry, conviviality, and creativity as well as wine.
原题跋（一）：
常年閉戶卻尋常，出郭郊原忽恁狂。
細路不逢多揖客，野田息背選詩郎。謂倪永清處士。
也非契闊因同調，如此歡娛一解裳。
大咲寶城今日我，滿天紅樹醉文章。Behind closed doors I've dwelt all year, content with routine days, Yet beyond the city walls, my heart suddenly runs wild.
On these narrow paths I meet few who bow in greeting, In wild fields I rest my back, choosing a companion in poetry.
It's not that we share old bonds or sing the same tune, But such joy makes me cast aside all restraint.
How I laugh at myself in Bao City today, Beneath red trees filling the sky, drunk on poetry. (Translation: Claude.)
原题跋（二）：
白雲紅樹埜田間，去者去兮還者還。
昨日郊原憑放眼，七珍八寶鬭青山。
人同草木一齊醉，脫盡西風試醒時。
大雅不知何者是，老來情性慣尋癡。White clouds and red trees amid the wild fields, those who go, go; those who come, come.
Yesterday in the open countryside, I let my gaze wander free, seven jewels and eight treasures compete with the green mountains.
People and plants are all drunk together, when the west wind strips all bare, that's when we try to sober up.
Who can say what true refinement is? In my old age, my nature tends toward seeking foolishness. (translation: Claude).
原题跋（三）：
頃刻煙雲能復古，滿空紅樹漫燒天。
請君大醉烏毫底，臥看霜林落葉旋。In an instant, mists and clouds can return to their primeval form;
Red trees fill the skies, spreading fire through the heavens.
I invite you, sir, to get very drunk on my black brushstrokes;
Lie down and watch the frosted forest as falling leaves swirl. (translated by 枫荣注)