China on the Assassination Attempt
Comrade Trump: One-Eared Nation Builder
News of the assassination attempt has gone viral on the Chinese internet. Who is responsible? What does this mean for the election? Could America possibly get any weirder?
Let’s dive in.
America, so free and brave! They have a shooting every day! 自由美利坚，枪击每一天
~ A poem from China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Historical Parallels: Shinzo Abe, Ronald Reagan, and Chen Shui-bian
The commentariat was quick to compare and contrast the Pennsylvania rally with other attempted (and successful) assassinations.
Jokes about Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe were particularly popular.
11,000 likes from Xinjiang 新疆:
Breaking news: Trump and Abe’s bilateral meeting originally scheduled for today has been postponed
From Tianjin 天津:
Smarter than Abe, Trump squatted down immediately. [doge] This civil war is fierce!
![[doge]](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F895b19ab-973e-47d5-9b8f-71a1e7d3d685_64x64.png "[doge]")
When the gun went off, Abe actually turned around to check. Trump, the King of Understanding, reacted very quickly ~
The more relevant historical comparison is the attempted assassination of Taiwan’s fifth president, Chen Shui-bian 陳水扁. In 2004, Chen was running for a second term as the DPP incumbent. He was shot the day before the polls opened, and then went on to win the election by an extremely narrow margin. (He was later imprisoned for corruption.)
A thread about Chen has wracked up nearly 60 million views on Zhihu 知乎, China’s Quora. Here’s the top answer:
What is important is not the truth of the matter, but that the image of Trump as an “American hero” will be widely spread, forming a sharp contrast with Biden’s senility.
Compare this to the “March 19 shooting incident.” On March 19, 2004, Chen Shui-bian was shot in the abdomen by a gunman while participating in a campaign event for the so-called Taiwan “election.” Subsequently, the election situation — which had originally favored the Kuomintang’s Lien Chan 連戰 and James Soong 宋楚瑜 — suddenly changed, and ended with Chen Shui-bian and Annette Lu 呂秀蓮 being elected. This incident had the effect of urging the green camp to vote. Although it did not change the votes of many blue-camp supporters, many people who were originally unwilling to vote came out to vote for the pan-green camp.
…
The Democratic Party will suffer a big storm. No matter who the gunman is or what his background is, the Republican Party will create momentum to describe the gunman as an extreme white left supporter of the Democratic Party in order to attack white left political correctness.
…
It is estimated that the truth will most likely disappear. But in fact, the truth is no longer important, because the Overton window of the United States is likely to undergo a huge shift because of this shooting. The American people who have long been oppressed by the political correctness of the white left will also stand up and unite under the banner of Trump.
The final historical case study is the 1981 shooting of Ronald Reagan. According to a political commentary account with a transliterated Russian username,
One bullet changed the world. … The last time something like this happened was the attempted assassination of Ronald Reagan. In the 1984 election, the whole United States was red. Trump is likely to win the election by a wide margin. #TheGunmanWhoShotTrumpIsARepublican
A commenter from Beijing replies,
The only downside is that this happened so early — there are still several months left…
Good Fortune Is Certain After Surviving a Great Disaster 大难不死，必有后福
Some of China’s academics are unconvinced that Trump’s post-shooting photoshoot will be enough to secure victory in October. Zhang Chunman 张春满, associate professor at Fudan University’s School of Marxism, explains in the Shanghai Observer:
It is undeniable that Trump’s calm and firm performance in times of crisis shows his psychological ability to cope with danger. This image of a strong man should give him some points, but this effect will wear off as time goes on.…
Trump’s campaign runs into challenges nonstop, and he will encounter judicial entanglements throughout this election year. He currently has no better way to solve those problems. Although both parties said they wanted to “cool down” after the attack, that’s easier said than done. The two sides have already forged a deep hatred and have reached a life-and-death situation 你死我活的状态.
This incident may have a demonstration effect 示范效应, leading to more political violence, and this year’s election may be even more dangerous. In addition, if the US economy improves and meets everyone’s expectations for Biden, it will be damaging to Trump’s campaign. … There are a lot of contingencies and variables in swing states. … After all, it is only July now.
Due to too many uncertainties, the direction of the US election is constantly changing. After Biden’s debate failure, the election was called “a sure loss.” After the failed attempt to assassinate Trump, the election is now deemed “a sure win,” but what is influencing the election in reality?
The main feature of this year’s election is black swans — unexpected and sudden events are emerging in an endless stream — with an increasing tilt toward political violence.…
But what is certain is that Biden, who was previously troubled by the debate and calls to withdraw from the election, has come out of the shadows. When asked by the CNN host whether he would continue to run for the election, Biden responded humorously, “Unless I get hit by a train, yes.” Moreover, Biden has agreed to fight Trump again on TV in September, and ambitiously stated, “I don’t plan to perform like before.” Questions about age are even less of a problem, and he did not forget to use Trump as a scapegoat — “I am old, but I am actually only three years older than Trump.”
Wishful thinking? Perhaps.
Given this election uncertainty, Chinese academics have opted to analyze how political violence in America will impact China. Wang Yong 王勇, professor of IR at Peking University, is particularly concerned about rally-’round-the-flag dynamics:
Currently, political violence and polarization in the United States interact with each other in a vicious cycle, highlighting a major crisis in national governance. Political violence reflects the people’s despair in democratic politics. They believe that legislation or elections cannot resolve their demands, and that they can only resort to violence.…
As the election competition becomes increasingly fierce, the current political polarization in the United States has become more worrying for the outside world.…
The powerful groups and their political agents in the United States are not interested in real social-reform programs and redistribution of wealth. Instead, the American political establishment will transfer domestic social conflicts to the outside world … as a strategy to oppose fundamental social changes.
Victory for Comrade Trump
Chinese social media overwhelmingly presumed that the shooting would be good for Trump’s campaign.
13,000 likes from Shanghai:
Trump-boy right now: The sound of victory just whizzed past my ear! 😂
2,000 likes from Shandong 山东:
Judging from Trump-boy’s tough expression after being shot in the ear (surrounded by the Secret Service, holding his head high with arms raised to shout, bloodied face, and the flag in the background), we know that he will definitely win. How can The Biden 登子 compare with this image? 🤪
The nickname used for Trump here is Chuānbǎo 川宝. I’ve translated this nickname as “Trump-boy,” but it’s not quite that straightforward. Chuān is a phonetic transliteration of Trump, while bǎo 宝 comes from the word bǎobèi 宝贝, which means precious baby.
So in addition to being pejorative, this nickname seems to imply that Trump’s childish behavior is a valuable asset to China.
7,000 likes from Shandong:
Trump to the shooter: You little bastard~ I might be an old man, but I’ll still win this election easily [doge emoji x3]
7,000 likes from Tianjin:
Trump is now a shoo-in to win the presidency
The verb meaning “win the election” used by both of these comments is bǎosòng 保送, which has the literal meaning of being accepted into college without taking the entrance exam. In this context, it implies there’s no point in even holding the election because Trump’s victory is already assured by the circumstances.
The commentariat also had some more cynical takes on Trump’s photoshoot. Here’s a comment translated by Weibo Doom Scroll:
As someone who regularly participates in reality TV shows, Trump knows how to rile up the audience. I don’t think his heroic pose at the end was a result of his fundamental personality. Rather, he very rationally knew that this was the best way to maximize his win — after all, he’s a businessman. Even if that win is accompanied by huge risk, he’d take it.
Conspiracy Theories and the Official State Response
China’s ultranationalists, including Professor Jin Canrong 金灿荣 of Renmin University, were quick to speculate that the attack was planned by the “deep state.” As translated by Alexander Boyd of China Digital Times:
Some hypothesize that this was the deep state issuing a warning to Trump, in hopes that he would take a more centrist approach. In fact, we can see that many of Trump’s positions are softer than they were in 2016. He is adjusting. Of course, this is just a guess.
The replies to Biden’s Sunday night speech included comments like these:
The first mention of unity 🤨 🍉 is the first sign of collapse
“Don’t make assumptions about the gunman’s motives and affiliations” … Isn’t this just self-incrimination?
The last election was won by cheating, this time they are directly preparing for assassination 🤣
By contrast, when the central government news agency 央视 reported that Xi Jinping had expressed his condolences, the heavily moderated comment section was dominated by permutations of just one message:
“Sincerely hope for world peace. Sincerely continue to pay attention.”
愿世界和平，持续关注
If you enjoyed this post, be sure to check out our other Trump roundups:
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