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James Wang's avatar

I think the nature of every release getting hyped to the moon is what’s driving the takes.

r1 has comparable performance as a prior model OpenAI came out with is less of a sexy headline than, “China is winning! The US messed up!” Just as the idea that Google was triumphant and OpenAI was washed with Veo/Sora lasted all of a couple of days before o3.

Perhaps it’ll be a good thing in spurring more competition and innovation, like Sputnik (… not that boiled down this is anywhere near the same level gap). But I think it’s more likely everyone will lose interest with the next release of whatever…

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Fringe Finance's avatar

Great article.

Respectfully, I have a different perspective on expert controls, though. Export controls may work on small countries like Cuba, which don't have the capacity to develop their own. The notion, however, that export control would hold back China—other than in the short term—seems implausible. China is the second-largest economy in the world, and when measured in PPP GDP, it is the largest economy in the world. All we will do is incentivize the Chinese to develop their equivalent of Nvidia, catch up, and exceed us.

I fear that our 'self-confidence' in our exceptionalism is less and less based on reality (merit) and more and more based on ego.

As I want the US, my home country, to do well, that is not a good development.

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