Increasingly tedious these conversations limited to US blob consensus overton constrained to what if PRC irrational / declining / can be deterred vs alternative of what if PRC rational / rising / cannot be deterred, and in fact maybe do the deterring going forward, as if theatre balance isn't widening in PRC favour and gap in nearly every other domain following similar trend. Ask how much PRC can arm Cuba, the Carribeans, Mexico, Canada to meaningfully threaten the US, a continental sized power. The reality is likely no amount since the productive scale asymmetry of US vs regional rest is simply too large. Odds are even worse in the Indopac islands, where US partners are less “unsinkable aircraft carriers” as import dependent liabilities with US security commitments in unfavourable ground. Same with PRC within theatre. Ask what is PRC's counter-modernization to US counter-modernization. What is PRC's version of integrated deterrence? Hint: it involves overwhelming saturation strikes within 1-2IC, beyond what US preposition plans can manage, and soon, coventional prompt global strike all the way to CONUS. Ask if US is willing to gamble CONUS serenity and hegemony built upon that serenity, and if US is calibrated to fight a power that can feasibly outproduce the most productive US wartime economy by a magnitude, and realistically who's going to be doing the deterring going forward.
China needs to add the calculus of an economic boycott to their invasion plans.
I cannot under, any circumstance, believe any Allied nation (South Korea, Japan, United States, Australia, United Kingdom, etc.) would continue trading with China if a hot war broke out.
If the allies blocked oil tankers coming from the ME, China would have to make some immediate adjustments to their energy grid.
If the Allies ordered an immediate embargo of ALL goods from China their export-based factories would be grinding to a halt within days.
Economic devastation would be as difficult for the Chinese to swallow as watching their vaunted military get ground up and spit out on the beaches of Taiwan.
If I were China, I would wait till America faces a serious headwind (e.g. major recession) before proceeding to take Taiwan. Chinese leadership plan years into the future and can wait decades to strike at the opportune moment.
What worries me the most is both Democrats and Republicans aren’t keen on fixing the national deficit ($1.7 trillion in 2023). This could seriously cause an economic crisis if US debt levels keep rising. Lee Kuan Yew mentioned something similar.
The less the prudence in which we conduct our affairs, the more advantageous it is for our adversaries.
Increasingly tedious these conversations limited to US blob consensus overton constrained to what if PRC irrational / declining / can be deterred vs alternative of what if PRC rational / rising / cannot be deterred, and in fact maybe do the deterring going forward, as if theatre balance isn't widening in PRC favour and gap in nearly every other domain following similar trend. Ask how much PRC can arm Cuba, the Carribeans, Mexico, Canada to meaningfully threaten the US, a continental sized power. The reality is likely no amount since the productive scale asymmetry of US vs regional rest is simply too large. Odds are even worse in the Indopac islands, where US partners are less “unsinkable aircraft carriers” as import dependent liabilities with US security commitments in unfavourable ground. Same with PRC within theatre. Ask what is PRC's counter-modernization to US counter-modernization. What is PRC's version of integrated deterrence? Hint: it involves overwhelming saturation strikes within 1-2IC, beyond what US preposition plans can manage, and soon, coventional prompt global strike all the way to CONUS. Ask if US is willing to gamble CONUS serenity and hegemony built upon that serenity, and if US is calibrated to fight a power that can feasibly outproduce the most productive US wartime economy by a magnitude, and realistically who's going to be doing the deterring going forward.
China needs to add the calculus of an economic boycott to their invasion plans.
I cannot under, any circumstance, believe any Allied nation (South Korea, Japan, United States, Australia, United Kingdom, etc.) would continue trading with China if a hot war broke out.
If the allies blocked oil tankers coming from the ME, China would have to make some immediate adjustments to their energy grid.
If the Allies ordered an immediate embargo of ALL goods from China their export-based factories would be grinding to a halt within days.
Economic devastation would be as difficult for the Chinese to swallow as watching their vaunted military get ground up and spit out on the beaches of Taiwan.
If I were China, I would wait till America faces a serious headwind (e.g. major recession) before proceeding to take Taiwan. Chinese leadership plan years into the future and can wait decades to strike at the opportune moment.
What worries me the most is both Democrats and Republicans aren’t keen on fixing the national deficit ($1.7 trillion in 2023). This could seriously cause an economic crisis if US debt levels keep rising. Lee Kuan Yew mentioned something similar.
The less the prudence in which we conduct our affairs, the more advantageous it is for our adversaries.