Monthly Content Roundup
Xi, Chips, AI, US Policy
We’re doing alot more stuff than we used to! To make sure you don’t miss out on our best content, we’ve decided to start publishing monthly roundups.
Chips and AI
**China’s Weird Chip Surplus, Explained
This article examines China’s paradoxical state of AI compute, where reports of both shortages and overcapacity exist simultaneously. China acquired and produced over a million AI chips in 2024, but faces inefficiencies in their deployment. At the same time, a slowdown in foundation-model training has reduced immediate demand, creating a temporary surplus that is expected to reverse as inference demand rises and China pursues the next generation of AI models. The article synthesizes insights from Chinese media, outlining how state-owned telecoms, tech giants, and local governments are investing in compute, the challenges of building true high-performance clusters, and the Chinese government’s recent moves to curb waste and consolidate AI infrastructure. It also assesses the role of Huawei’s domestically produced chips.
DeepSeek: what it means and what happens next
This interview with Kevin Xu, a former GitHub and Obama Press Office staffer, explores DeepSeek’s unique organizational structure, approach to talent, its parallels with OpenAI, and the broader tensions between open-source collaboration and nationalistic technological competition.
Anthropic's Dario Amodei on AI Competition
We interviewed the CEO of Anthropic! In this podcast, Dario discusses his essay “Machines of Loving Grace,” and advocates for stricter export controls to widen the US-China capability gap and ensure AI systems are developed responsibly. The conversation covers DeepSeek’s unexpected advancements, concerns over AI espionage and model distillation, and the technical and policy challenges of preventing China from scaling up to US levels. Amodei also reflects on AI’s potential impact on democracy, suggesting that AI can be used to strengthen governance and public deliberation rather than simply entrenching autocracies.
DeepSeek’s New Burdens: Does DeepSeek need Beijing, or does it need Beijing to stay out of the way?
With the help of an anonymous contributor, this article speculates on the challenges DeepSeek faces as it attracts attention internationally and from the Chinese government. With growing compute needs, we consider whether DeepSeek could partner with a hyperscaler like ByteDance, and how that would shift its culture and business model. Since then, new reports have emerged verifying that DeepSeek is considering such a partnership as well as weighing the benefits of outside fundraising. This essay also considers the extreme case where DeepSeek receives “national champion” status, gaining state funding, privileged data access, and procurement deals — but at the risk of government interference, loss of autonomy, and geopolitical backlash.
SemiAnalysis + Asianometry on the AI Mandate of Heaven
In this podcast, Jordan has way too much fun making an AI tier list, speculating on Tim Cook’s successor, and discussing Google’s $75 billion AI investment with Dylan Patel and Doug O’Laughlin from SemiAnalysis and Jon from Asianometry.
Watch below on YouTube or listen now on iTunes, Spotify, or your favorite podcast app.
China
Friday Bites: China on Dario, DeepSeeking Truth, Ali + DeepSeek, and a Procurement IP Manifesto
This grab bag features translated Chinese responses to our interview with Dario, as well as Alex Colville’s excellent report about how DeepSeek subtly propagandizes even when the model is theoretically uncensored. Other features include how to use DeepSeek to research China, rumors of hyperscaler partnerships, and an anonymous procurement reform call to arms.
Xi’s Hard Tech Avengers
This article guides you through the less-well known guests who attended Xi’s business symposium, with profiles of the propaganda czars, Politburo tech strategists, and neoauthoritarian academics as well as tycoons of semiconductors, chemicals, agriculture, and 3D printing.
US Policy
**Strategic Ambiguity vs. Clarity
We took a break from DeepSeek mania to publish Republic of ChinaTalk editor Nicholas Welch’s comprehensive guide to the debate on Taiwan policy. It condenses arguments from 50 op-eds and academic papers into 12 key points, with five supporting strategic clarity (arguing it deters China, reassures allies, and aligns policy with reality) and seven advocating for continued ambiguity (which proponents say maintains flexibility, prevents provocation, and keeps Taiwan focused on self-defense). The article highlights areas where more data is needed to evaluate these arguments, and highlights historical parallels to past U.S. foreign policy missteps.
American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare
In this interview, Eddie Fishman explores the evolution of American economic warfare and the effectiveness of sanctions as a geopolitical tool. Fishman, a former State Department official, traces the transformation of U.S. sanctions policy, from the failures in Iraq and Cuba to the unprecedented success of Iran’s financial isolation and the mixed results against Russia. He highlights how globalization turned the U.S. dollar into a powerful chokepoint, leveraged through secondary sanctions and financial penalties to pressure adversaries. The discussion also covers the institutional dysfunctions that hinder swift action, the challenges of enforcing export controls on China, and the need for a centralized agency to handle economic statecraft.
The NSF, Seriously? + AI Safety's Death
In this piece, Jordan critiques the Trump administration’s cuts to basic science funding, particularly its impact on the NSF’s Technology, Innovation, and Partnerships (TIP) directorate, which was designed to drive translational research and bolster U.S. competitiveness. Jordan argues that gutting forward-thinking programs like TIP is a strategic mistake that undermines national security, and suggests that meaningful budget cuts should target bloated defense programs instead.
Trade: How Free is Too Free?
We released a transcript of our 2019 podcast with trade historian Doug Irwin in light of Trump’s tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico. This interview explores the long history of U.S. trade policy, tracing its evolution from the revenue-focused tariffs of the early republic to the restrictive protectionism of the late 19th and early 20th centuries, followed by the reciprocal trade agreements that defined postwar globalization. The conversation also examines the rise of executive power in trade policy, the role of institutions like the WTO, and the shifting landscape of U.S.-China economic relations.
Gridlocked: Transformer Shortage Choking US Supply Chains
Lily Ottinger and Caleb Harding reported about the transformer shortage in the U.S. and its implications for industrial policy, national security, and economic growth. Transformers, essential for electricity distribution and infrastructure projects, face soaring demand due to grid aging, electrification trends, and AI-driven energy needs, yet domestic supply meets only 20% of demand. Supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, lack of standardization, and reliance on foreign manufacturers — particularly China — exacerbate delays, raising concerns over security vulnerabilities from potential cyber or physical attacks. The report explores solutions such as expanding domestic steel production, incentivizing transformer manufacturing, standardizing designs, and aggregating a strategic transformer reserve.
Innovation Emergency with Trump 1.0's Patent Director
This interview with former USPTO Director Andrei Iancu explores the role of patents in fostering innovation, the increasing dominance of China’s IP system, and the future of U.S. patent policy under the Trump administration. Iancu highlights how congressional inaction causes outdated IP laws to struggle in the face of emerging technologies, while China’s streamlined patent process and aggressive IP strategy have given it a competitive edge. He warns that weak patent protections in the U.S. risk stifling investment in high-risk, high-reward industries, potentially ceding technological leadership to China.
In the trades…
In the wake of DeepSeek mania, ChinaTalk earned shoutouts in the The FT, NY Magazine, Al Jazeera, and Foreign Policy (which called our coverage ‘savvy’). Jordan also appeared on NPR’s Here & Now, The Circuit and Hard Fork to talk about China’s AI development.
