Taiwan on Trump-Zelenskyy, Getting Nukes, TSMC Deal

佛祖慈悲: "Buddha’s Mercy!"

It’s been a tough week for the international order. It feels like every TV in every restaurant across Taiwan is blasting nonstop coverage of the Trump-Zelenskyy fallout.

How will Taiwan respond to Trump’s pivot to Putin? Would Taiwan be safer with nuclear weapons? What platforms do Taiwanese people use to debate about politics anyway?

In today’s roundup, we’ll analyze perspectives from Taiwanese legacy newspapers, social media firestorms, and viral political influencers.

Driving Solidarity

We’ll start off by highlighting some reactions on the most popular Taiwanese social media platform, PTT.

PTT is a bit like a Taiwanese version of Reddit. The key difference is that comments are always displayed in chronological order instead of being ranked by popularity. Users can “push” 推, “boo” 噓, or reply to comments to express their opinion. The platform shows whether each comment is being “pushed” or “booed” overall, but doesn’t display the total vote tallies. Like on Reddit, there are sub-forums for topic-specific discussion.

Disclaimer: these forums are hosting open debates with intense back-and-forth between commenters. I’ll be highlighting recurring themes, as well as arguments where both sides are earning push-votes, but I want to be clear that there is no broad consensus on what the Trump-Zelenskyy fallout means for Taiwan at this point.

For example, the following debate emerged below a Mandarin translation of the Foreign Affairs article entitled “Ukraine Will Not Surrender to Russia”:

(Pushed) I support and praise this article, justice will prevail.

(Booed) Then how come there are no soldiers? Conduct an opinion poll or something.

(Pushed) These past couple of days, I've seen quite a few people claim that Ukraine should have originally surrendered to Russia in exchange for peace and prosperity. This kind of argument completely ignores the suffering Ukraine endured under Russian rule in the past.

(Pushed) In the past, we thought that people in democratic countries feared death more than other people — but Ukrainians are not afraid.

(Pushed) The Uyghurs will never surrender, but they will not go to the front line

(Pushed) It is 100000000% reasonable to be suspicious that Trump received personal benefits from Russia or made a blood pact with Russia.

The Taiwanese transliteration of “Zelenskyy” is 澤倫斯基 Zélúnsījī, and in casual writing Taiwanese people refer to him by the nickname 司機 Sījī (literally, “The Driver”) which has the same pronunciation as the last two characters of the transliteration.

From a thread in a military forum about whether Zelenskyy overplayed his hand:

(Pushed) The driver really shouldn’t have talked back to Vance. If he wanted to argue, he could have done it in private.

(Pushed) After apologizing, you still have nothing, so why bother apologizing?

(Pushed) If Little Z doesn’t kneel, America will make explosive corruption accusations against him.

(Reply) East Asian countries are better at licking.

(Pushed) If Ukraine wants to thank someone, it should thank the previous Biden administration. Why thank Trump?

(Pushed) It seems someone is trying to smear and destroy Mr. Z's image. Be careful when responding to this thread.

Indeed, there are signs of disinformation in some discussions of this topic. An FT article entitled “Zelenskyy rejects calls for immediate Ukraine-Russia ceasefire” was posted on PTT with the mistranslated title, “The Driver Rejects Ukrainian and Russian calls for a Ceasefire” (司機拒絕烏克蘭與俄羅斯立即停火的要求), a fact which was quickly pointed out and mocked in the comments.

Marco Rubio is well-known in Taiwan thanks to his long congressional record of support for the island. Here are some comments about him:

(Pushed) Rubio will be replaced soon.

(Pushed) Rubio was once a pioneer in anti-communism, but now he bows down to power.

Underneath an article reporting Trump’s plan to freeze aid to Ukraine in response to the meeting:

(Pushed) Stop it right now immediately!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I’ve never seen such a cowardly U.S. president!! You truly see everything if you live long enough!!!!!!!!

(Pushed) Will the European big brothers shoulder some of the responsibility? Isn’t this an opportunity for them to show off?

In a financial forum:

(Pushed) Being pro-China is selling out Taiwan, being pro-America is also selling out Taiwan.

(Pushed) In the Budapest Agreement, even China said it would protect Ukraine, but that isn’t happening

(Pushed) Ultimately, [Ukraine] should not have given up its nuclear weapons. Security guarantees are bullshit.

(Booed) Ukraine has no nuclear bombs, so of course it has no bargaining chips.

(Pushed) The driver’s bargaining chip is making the king (Trump) lose face.

(Pushed) Buddha’s mercy 佛祖慈悲 [This phrase is used ironically in situations that are cruel or corrupt to the point of hopelessness.]

Ukraine Today, But Taiwan’s OK?

At the start of the invasion, the DPP popularized the slogan, “Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow.” Editor Gu Shu-ren 辜樹仁 of CommonWealth Magazine 天下雜誌 (a Taiwanese publication similar to the Atlantic), addressed fears that Trump will abandon Taiwan after Ukraine in a recent editorial:

Looking back at history, Taiwan's strategic value to the United States has been the key factor in America's decision to either abandon or support Taiwan.

In 1950, when the Korean War broke out, the Republic of China (ROC) government, which had retreated to Taiwan and was on the brink of collapse after being abandoned by the U.S., suddenly became the central hub of the U.S. first island chain strategy in East Asia — a so-called unsinkable aircraft carrier — greatly increasing Taiwan's strategic importance.

In the 1970s, as the U.S. aligned with China to counter the Soviet Union, Taiwan lost its strategic value, leading to the severance of U.S.-Taiwan diplomatic ties and the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Taiwan. …

Today, Taiwan's strategic value to the United States is at its highest since the servering of diplomatic ties, as the primary battleground in the U.S.-China rivalry is now the technology war, with semiconductors at its core. More specifically, TSMC is the most crucial asset for the U.S. in securing a supply of advanced chips and revitalizing its semiconductor manufacturing industry. If the U.S. wants to maintain its technological and military lead over China, it must firmly keep Taiwan within its grasp. …

Ensuring that the U.S. remains dependent on Taiwan’s advanced chip manufacturing — making American national security synonymous with protecting Taiwan — is the most critical factor in maintaining Taiwan’s strategic value to the United States.

Of course, there is another equally important factor. Trump dislikes war, especially costly military interventions where the U.S. cannot be assured of victory. He has repeatedly complained that Ukraine failed to prevent war at the outset. Therefore, avoiding war at all costs is also a key strategy for Taiwan to secure Trump’s support.

Only through this can tomorrow’s Taiwan avoid becoming the Ukraine we saw today.

Reporter Jiang Liangcheng 江良誠 similarly warned that Taiwan would need to become more transactional in its relationship Trump:

“Trump's only vocabulary is actually "money, money, money". All international relations can be measured by money. There is no free lunch in the world. It is impossible to ask Americans to help you defend your country like a plate for free and without any reward. …

However, when it comes to Taiwan's policy toward the United States, Lai Ching-te still sticks to Tsai Ing-wen's international politics, such as the first island chain, geopolitics, and Indo-Pacific security. I'm afraid even Trump doesn't understand these terms.”

The Meihua News Network (梅花新聞網), a Pro-China news outlet owned by a controversial Taiwanese religious leader, argued instead that Taiwan needs to reopen dialogue with Beijing given the reality that the U.S. is an unreliable partner.”

In front of cabinet members and the media, Trump was unwilling to guarantee that the Chinese Communist Party would not invade Taiwan by force during his term, and emphasized that he had a good relationship with Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping. …

“Foreign Affairs” recently published a special article titled “The Taiwan Fixation: American Strategy Shouldn’t Hinge on an Unwinnable War”, co-authored by Professor Kavanagh of the Georgetown University Center for Security Studies and senior scholar Wertheim of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The gist of the article is: Taiwan is certainly valuable to the United States, but if American decision-makers overestimate Taiwan's importance, they will sacrifice the security of maintaining the status quo due to the risk of endless and destructive war; and Taiwan's importance is not enough for the United States to sacrifice tens of thousands of American lives to protect it. Former National Security Council Secretary-General Su Chi 蘇起 described this article as the most powerful article to date advocating the United States to let go of Taiwan. …

Apart from fully relying on the American security umbrella and turning Taiwan into a "porcupine," the DPP also has another option: restoring cross-strait communication and reducing tensions in the Taiwan Strait. If that happens, the so-called "Abandon Taiwan Theory" would naturally dissipate. Rational decision-making should not be obstructed by anti-China or China-hating sentiments.”

By contrast, a popular post from the Taiwanese political influencer James Hsieh argued that Taiwan should be doing whatever it takes to improve relations with the U.S., not criticizing Trump’s Ukraine policy:

“I still see many people online going against the tide, bashing Trump, criticizing the U.S., and supporting all kinds of conspiracy theories.
Here are five reminders:

1. Before the war, Ukraine was extremely pro-China, selling major military technology to China. Just a few days ago, Ukraine even asked China for help.

2. Morally, we must oppose aggression, but in terms of international strategy, we must firmly support the United States.

3. Taiwan is not Ukraine. In terms of historical ties with the U.S., the Taiwan Relations Act, geographical location, type of warfare, and economic strength, Taiwan is completely different. Taiwan is absolutely not a distant European country like Ukraine in America's eyes. Comparing Ukraine to Taiwan is a completely flawed analogy. Saying that the U.S. pulling out of the Russia-Ukraine war implies that it will betray Taiwan is just another favorite conspiracy theory of the dumb lefties (左膠) and the Chinese Communist Party’s propaganda machine.

4. Personally, I hope the Russia-Ukraine war ends quickly so that the U.S. can fully prepare for the Indo-Pacific. This is a practical concern, as China is rapidly advancing its strategic plans. How the U.S. swiftly ends its engagements elsewhere and refocuses on the Indo-Pacific is critical. Just yesterday, Vice President Vance stated that the U.S. military-industrial production can no longer sustain the continuous supply of heavy weaponry to Ukraine.

5. History has shown that during major wars, opportunistic nations take advantage of a great power’s exhaustion to invade smaller neighboring countries. If the Russia-Ukraine war escalates into World War III and the U.S. and Europe are preoccupied with fighting Putin’s alliance, it would be the perfect moment for China to seize Taiwan under the guise of maintaining stability.

If Taiwan's democracy, freedom, and independence from oppression are what you value most, then Taiwan should prioritize its relationships with the U.S. and Japan over everything else — not Ukraine.

Only the U.S. and Japan will help us. Survival comes first before ideals.

Taiwan-U.S. friendship!”

It remains unclear what the Lai administration’s approach will be, but you can be sure that ChinaTalk will keep monitoring the debate as it evolves.

Will Taiwan Get Nukes?

Zelenskyy’s White House press conference also reignited the old debate about whether Taiwan would benefit from having its own nuclear arsenal. Taiwan abandoned its indigenous nuclear program in response to pressure from the U.S., much like how Ukraine relinquished its nuclear weapons to Russia after the fall of the USSR. Taiwan was estimated to be just two years away from completing a WMD when the U.S. intervened in 1988.

These parallels were drawn explicitly by a CNN profile of Colonel Chang Hsien-yi 張憲義, the Taiwanese nuclear engineer who provided intelligence about Taiwan’s proliferation plans to the CIA. The article was repackaged, translated, and published on the front page of the China Times on Monday.

On PTT, the profile drew comments like:

(Pushed) This person is the reason why Taiwanese independence is impossible.

(Pushed) Nuclear weapons are not something that Taiwan's extremely incompetent politics could handle. If nuclear weapons were in the hands of Chiang Kai-Shek and his family, Taiwan would have ended up like North Korea. The Chiang family would still in power, and there would never have even been a chance for democratization. So many people have no clue what’s going on.

Source.

Taiwanese political influencer Mr. Shen 公子沈, who runs a YouTube channel with more than 700k subscribers, posted the following meme on Threads (which is way more popular in Taiwan than the U.S.) with the caption, “With nukes vs without nukes: it’s time for Taiwan to develop nuclear weapons.”

Speaking of bargaining chips…

Reactions to the TSMC Deal

TSMC’s newly announced $100 billion investment in US chip manufacturing led to more online discontent. The following comments from Facebook were curated by Angela Oung:

“Today we are all Ukrainians”

“At least Zelensky has guts”

“ASMC” [American Semiconductor Manufacturing Company]

“So they’re taking our stuff, leaving us with no cards. Think they’ll help in the future? Stop dreaming!”

“Taiwan’s remaining value is becoming a meat grinder like Ukraine.”

“He [TSMC Chairman CC Wei] looks like he has a gun behind his head. Hostage situation.”

“The silicon shield we spent decades building is being handed over by our government without a whimper”

“TSMC: built by the KMT, sold by the DPP”

“Is Lai Ching-te such a pussy that he’s not even gonna say anything?”

“Today Ukraine, tomorrow Taiwan. One step closer to refugee status.”

“Bandits…just like the CCP”

To close, I’ll leave you with another popular post on Threads expressing frustration about Taiwan’s-U.S. relations:

“The U.S. asks us to buy military equipment — we buy it.

The U.S. asks us to extend the length of mandatory military service — we extend it.

The U.S. wants TSMC — we hand it over with both hands.

The U.S. wants us to implement resilient defense — we manage to do it, even if we have to hide and shuffle the budget.

For every single thing the U.S. asks of us, from the issue of eating ractopamine pork in our daily meals to national defense policies involving regional security cooperation, Taiwan follows the U.S.’s demands without question.

But will there come a day, just like today’s Ukraine, where we sign agreements on resource concessions, trading away our country's future rebuilding assets, yet still lack the most basic “security guarantees”?

Ukraine has the support of the entire European continent—but what about Taiwan?

Will today’s Ukraine be a reflection of Taiwan’s future?

Will Taiwan, when that day comes, be even more isolated and helpless?”

To be fair, this commenter is right that Taiwanese pork is way more delicious than the ractopamine pork imported from the U.S. I sincerely hope that every ChinaTalk subscriber has an opportunity to come to Taiwan and eat stewed pork rice (滷肉飯)…before it’s too late!?

Source. Jordan does not eat pork and does not approve this message.