Excellent and thoughtful analysis. The rock of stability that the US has provided to the liberal rules-based world order is teetering. I write while on vacation in splendid, secure and safe South Korea which has seen so much growth and benefit from this guarantor, and the US and allies in turn from the free trade and shared values that this stable rock has ensured.
Lots of Russian/Trump bots in these comments offering no substantive push back but somehow disagreeing with the article contents lmao! Trump is obviously a pushover and his proposes policies will have serious consequences on the world stage.
If someone disagrees and offers no substantive push back or reason for disagreeing, while uttering some nonsense phrase pledging allegiance to their leader, then might as well be.
You mean “substantive” statements like “somehow disagreeing” and “obviously” and “serious consequences”? Disagreeing doesn’t make someone a bot. Calling them a bot is not very “substantive” either.
Dude, how does one respond substantively to braindead comments with little detail or nonsense explanation? Please let me know (if your answer is "you can't), congrats, you're on my team but have the blinders on LOL
You’re overthinking it. You absolutely can reply to people you consider “braindead” or whatever. You simply reply with facts and the “substantive” arguments you’re criticizing them for not having.
If the US retreats from global hegemony under Trump, I think we'll end up in a situation more similar to 1914 than 1939. In 1914, Europe was growing, propserous, and optimistic. Of the 10 most populous nations in the world, 8 were in Europe. These included young upstarts with huge populations and growing economies (Germany, Russia, to an extent Italy) alongside aging great powers who were still quite rich per capita (France, Austria-Hungary). Each country jostled for geopolitical position, trying to carve out its place amongst the great powers and climb the ladder as high as it could. Eventually things coallesced into two blocks (the Central Powers and the Entente), but the geopolitical build up that led up to WWI involved essentially independent power blocs that were looking to pursue their own interests.
Similarly, today 4 of the 5 most populous countries in the world are in Asia (Pakistan, India, China, and Indonesia). 3 of those 4 have been experiencing robust economic growth over the past decade (India, China, and Indonesia). Alongside these three growing upstarts, we have aging powers that are smaller in size but much richer per capita (Japan, South Korea, to an extent Australia). With a US that has retreated from the global stage, these will likely devolve into independent power blocs, consisting of something like Indonesia, China + North Korea + Pakistan, India, and South Korea + Japan.
The reason I make this distinction between the build up to WW1 and WW2 is that I think the pre-WW1 situation is inherently more dangerous. WW2 required fanatic dictators installed in Italy, the Soviet Union, and Germany, hellbent on overthrowing the world order. It is hard to image a war on that scale of destruction, given the conditions in 1939, without one or both of Hitler and Stalin in power. Thus, these radical dictators represent single points of failure for these type of regimes - a well-targeted strike on a radical leadership group could nip these problems in the bud. In addition, these types of regimes can really only arise in situations like what the 1930s presented - extreme economic hardship and mass civil unrest giving rise to political instability.
On the other hand, WW1 occurred due to a group of countries who believed they were rationally pursuing their own self-interest in the Great Power game. The conflict between the Serbian nationalist and Austria-Hungary was the flashpoint that started things, but it did not need to be this particular flashpoint that gave rise to the war. The geopolitical conditions and networks of alliances in the early 1900s made it so that any number of flashpoints could have given rise to a major war between the greaet powers. This, I think, is harder to defend against because there is no single point of failure as in the radical dictatorship case. There are potentially dozens of flashpoints that can cause a war and no clear way to get nations to back down, as each believes it is rationally pursuing its own self-interests and believes that, if it backs down, its neighbor will take advantage of the situation.
All that is to say, if the US backs out of Asia and the continent devolves into these independent and competing power blocs, then I think a WW1 type scenario in Asia is quite likely. The conditions will be there to turn any number of flashpoints into a major continental war.
Very important piece of writing Jordan. So many of these commenters think that just because we’ve had a largely stable 21st century world order since WW2, this will continue indefinitely even if the US takes its hands off the wheel.
It’s only because of the strength of the US that we’ve had the stable world order. Capitulating to Xi and Putin will show how tenuous this stability is.
Well, you do have at least one decided voter here. My prior is to skip the top of the ticket because both are bad options. Foreign policy is my top issue, in addition to free speech.
I see your foreign policy argument, and Noah Smith had a related post. My key question is whether a Harris administration would actually invest in our military—and whether she’d stand by Israel against the Iranian terror machine.
I wish there were a principled “peace through strength” option on the ballot.
Trump is the right man to deal with China. He had a good relationship with Xi, and hopefully his election will put a stop to neocons plans for a war with China.
China and Taiwan is none of our business. In fact, it has been official US policy for decades that Taiwan is a part of… China.
To be precise, the official US policy was outlined in the Three Joint Communiqués:
The first communiqué (February 28, 1972), known as the Shanghai Communiqué, summarizes the landmark dialogue begun by President Richard Nixon and Premier Zhou Enlai during February 1972.
The second communiqué (January 1, 1979), the Joint Communiqué on the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations, formally announces the commencement of normal relations between the United States and the People's Republic of China.
The third communiqué (August 17, 1982), also known as the August 17th communiqué, reaffirms the desire of both sides to further strengthen economic, cultural, educational, scientific, and technological ties. Both sides also reaffirmed the statements made about the Taiwan issue in the previous communiqué.
Putin has never ONCE announced any intention to recreate the Soviet Union, unlike a certain US ally in the Middle-East which has desmonstrated in front of the UN General Assembly its plan to recover all of the territories promised to them by "God" in an ancient book...
It's clear who's the irrational Hegemon here trying to unnaturally prolong its life and prevent new powers from rising and taking their proper place in the world.
I am not a bot but man are you blind. Not sure if you are just a far left liberal or have your fingers in your ears eyes closed and saying nananana a.
The war was over long before Biden came into power. His pull out was a huge didaster. The 13 hero’s killed. How many people fell off the last plane that left. I saw at least 2 with being high enough and enough speed no way they lived. Then the weapons and vehicles left behind. The helicopters that the administration said were not useable. One was flying over the parade as ISIS had their parade down Main Street. Multiple other vehicles in the parade too. Them the boxes of brand new rifles they left. It was ridiculous. Those weapons are also being sold to get money to purchase other weapons when they decide to ramp up again.
All these wars that have been started on Bidens watch. The lie you parroted about nobody in a war zone or however it was said. What about the many rockets and drones that were launched at bases we had service people in. He finally bombed any empty storage shed in response. He did very little with these attacks. Our Navy has the ability to track the movement ordinance back to its launch area and be very close. When they launched anything at our ships or any ship out there they should have sent a cruise missile right back at them. He gave those terrorists in Jordan the ability to launch anything they wanted and not worry about any response. Biden has been awful with foreign affairs and Harris is worse. She has no track record with foreign relations except these last few years. She was horrible word salad and the annoying cackle. She made a fool of herself on some of those stages.
Then we have the most idiotic nuclear agreement with Iran. She will reinstate that and give them carte Blanche to do what they want. Biden telling Israel not to hit the nuclear sites is stupid. They need to bomb those places whenever they get close or have enough equipment to start refining to get it to military grade and build a bomb. Israel will not be safe if and when they get the fuel refined and build a bomb.
There is so many more failures we have had on the world stage. Countries are laughing at us. They have shows that are made about the stupid stuff this administration has done and said. From the peaceful protest with cars and buildings on fire behind them to arresting people on a sidewalk who were kneeling and praying. They were the trouble makers in the riots. Then Kamala starting a fund to pay legal fees for the few rioters they did arrest. There is so much more but a Harris administration will be the end of the US as we know it. We will not be the world currency anymore China will take that away.
Trump has never been my first pick for President. I thought it was a joke when he first started running. He was a better choice than Clinton. She still thinks she is relevant she is not. She should be in jail or the media should have torn her apart with the Russian hoax. Now he is way more qualified than Harris. Look at how many illegal aliens she let across the border and how many are criminals and raped and or killed girls here. She was the border Czar the media even called her that. Then when the border got so bad the media finally started covering it. All of the sudden she was never the border Czar and the media has parroted that lie too. Biden undid all the things Trump did to close the border on day one. Then blamed Trimp for it. Everything has been Trumps fault. From the border to inflation and gas prices. Them giving Iran the $12 billion dollars was stupid. They have to use it for food and meds. But then the money they were using can go back to their proxies in munitions or cash to pay them. Biden/Harris has been so bad and the media has covered for them all along the way. We can’t have 4 more years of this.
This is my last paragraph I applaud you if you are still here. I need to talk about Jan 6th. It was a sad time for America. Some of those guys were absolutely in the wrong. There were a lot of them that were peaceful and even being escorted on a tour buy Capitol Police. That doesn’t excuse the guys that were destructive. I also do not think you can blame their actions all on Trump. He said peaceful. I watched the speech because I thought it odd he was giving a speech at that time. He should have told them all to go home earlier. That was unfortunate he allowed them to go as long as he did. Also only 1 person was murdered on Jan 6. The lady was unarmed and not a physical threat. She was shot for no reason and nothing was done to the shooter. Jan 6th should never have happened it was very unfortunate and a sad day. Trump is a boaster and exaggerates a lot. Biden is in the back pocket of many of these leaders causing problems around the world. I would imagine he got Harris into some of those pockets also. We just can’t trust Harris to make a stand against our enemies. She learned from Biden how to let terror groups fire rockets missiles and drones at us with no retaliation. How to do so many other things wrong.
Excellent and thoughtful analysis. The rock of stability that the US has provided to the liberal rules-based world order is teetering. I write while on vacation in splendid, secure and safe South Korea which has seen so much growth and benefit from this guarantor, and the US and allies in turn from the free trade and shared values that this stable rock has ensured.
Lots of Russian/Trump bots in these comments offering no substantive push back but somehow disagreeing with the article contents lmao! Trump is obviously a pushover and his proposes policies will have serious consequences on the world stage.
If someone disagrees, does that make them a Russian/Trump bot?
If someone disagrees and offers no substantive push back or reason for disagreeing, while uttering some nonsense phrase pledging allegiance to their leader, then might as well be.
You mean “substantive” statements like “somehow disagreeing” and “obviously” and “serious consequences”? Disagreeing doesn’t make someone a bot. Calling them a bot is not very “substantive” either.
Dude, how does one respond substantively to braindead comments with little detail or nonsense explanation? Please let me know (if your answer is "you can't), congrats, you're on my team but have the blinders on LOL
Anyway, thanks for engaging with me. I appreciate it.
You’re overthinking it. You absolutely can reply to people you consider “braindead” or whatever. You simply reply with facts and the “substantive” arguments you’re criticizing them for not having.
You can't criticize what doesn't exist
If the US retreats from global hegemony under Trump, I think we'll end up in a situation more similar to 1914 than 1939. In 1914, Europe was growing, propserous, and optimistic. Of the 10 most populous nations in the world, 8 were in Europe. These included young upstarts with huge populations and growing economies (Germany, Russia, to an extent Italy) alongside aging great powers who were still quite rich per capita (France, Austria-Hungary). Each country jostled for geopolitical position, trying to carve out its place amongst the great powers and climb the ladder as high as it could. Eventually things coallesced into two blocks (the Central Powers and the Entente), but the geopolitical build up that led up to WWI involved essentially independent power blocs that were looking to pursue their own interests.
Similarly, today 4 of the 5 most populous countries in the world are in Asia (Pakistan, India, China, and Indonesia). 3 of those 4 have been experiencing robust economic growth over the past decade (India, China, and Indonesia). Alongside these three growing upstarts, we have aging powers that are smaller in size but much richer per capita (Japan, South Korea, to an extent Australia). With a US that has retreated from the global stage, these will likely devolve into independent power blocs, consisting of something like Indonesia, China + North Korea + Pakistan, India, and South Korea + Japan.
The reason I make this distinction between the build up to WW1 and WW2 is that I think the pre-WW1 situation is inherently more dangerous. WW2 required fanatic dictators installed in Italy, the Soviet Union, and Germany, hellbent on overthrowing the world order. It is hard to image a war on that scale of destruction, given the conditions in 1939, without one or both of Hitler and Stalin in power. Thus, these radical dictators represent single points of failure for these type of regimes - a well-targeted strike on a radical leadership group could nip these problems in the bud. In addition, these types of regimes can really only arise in situations like what the 1930s presented - extreme economic hardship and mass civil unrest giving rise to political instability.
On the other hand, WW1 occurred due to a group of countries who believed they were rationally pursuing their own self-interest in the Great Power game. The conflict between the Serbian nationalist and Austria-Hungary was the flashpoint that started things, but it did not need to be this particular flashpoint that gave rise to the war. The geopolitical conditions and networks of alliances in the early 1900s made it so that any number of flashpoints could have given rise to a major war between the greaet powers. This, I think, is harder to defend against because there is no single point of failure as in the radical dictatorship case. There are potentially dozens of flashpoints that can cause a war and no clear way to get nations to back down, as each believes it is rationally pursuing its own self-interests and believes that, if it backs down, its neighbor will take advantage of the situation.
All that is to say, if the US backs out of Asia and the continent devolves into these independent and competing power blocs, then I think a WW1 type scenario in Asia is quite likely. The conditions will be there to turn any number of flashpoints into a major continental war.
Very important piece of writing Jordan. So many of these commenters think that just because we’ve had a largely stable 21st century world order since WW2, this will continue indefinitely even if the US takes its hands off the wheel.
It’s only because of the strength of the US that we’ve had the stable world order. Capitulating to Xi and Putin will show how tenuous this stability is.
I remember all the wars n stuff from the previous Trump presidency versus the current state of peace with Biden-Harris.
Dang… I’m old enough to remember when Democrats were the liberal “no war” party.
Well, you do have at least one decided voter here. My prior is to skip the top of the ticket because both are bad options. Foreign policy is my top issue, in addition to free speech.
I see your foreign policy argument, and Noah Smith had a related post. My key question is whether a Harris administration would actually invest in our military—and whether she’d stand by Israel against the Iranian terror machine.
I wish there were a principled “peace through strength” option on the ballot.
Trump is the right man to deal with China. He had a good relationship with Xi, and hopefully his election will put a stop to neocons plans for a war with China.
China and Taiwan is none of our business. In fact, it has been official US policy for decades that Taiwan is a part of… China.
To be precise, the official US policy was outlined in the Three Joint Communiqués:
The first communiqué (February 28, 1972), known as the Shanghai Communiqué, summarizes the landmark dialogue begun by President Richard Nixon and Premier Zhou Enlai during February 1972.
The second communiqué (January 1, 1979), the Joint Communiqué on the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations, formally announces the commencement of normal relations between the United States and the People's Republic of China.
The third communiqué (August 17, 1982), also known as the August 17th communiqué, reaffirms the desire of both sides to further strengthen economic, cultural, educational, scientific, and technological ties. Both sides also reaffirmed the statements made about the Taiwan issue in the previous communiqué.
Source: Wikipedia
You’re worried because you’re misinformed.
“BUT PUTIN WILL TAKE OVER ALL OF EUROPE!” Is just nonsensical Cold War propaganda fueled by neocons.
This whole mess was created when Ukraine wasn’t told “Lol NO!” when they wanted to enter NATO, and hopefully Trump can sort that situation out.
Putin has never ONCE announced any intention to recreate the Soviet Union, unlike a certain US ally in the Middle-East which has desmonstrated in front of the UN General Assembly its plan to recover all of the territories promised to them by "God" in an ancient book...
It's clear who's the irrational Hegemon here trying to unnaturally prolong its life and prevent new powers from rising and taking their proper place in the world.
I am not a bot but man are you blind. Not sure if you are just a far left liberal or have your fingers in your ears eyes closed and saying nananana a.
The war was over long before Biden came into power. His pull out was a huge didaster. The 13 hero’s killed. How many people fell off the last plane that left. I saw at least 2 with being high enough and enough speed no way they lived. Then the weapons and vehicles left behind. The helicopters that the administration said were not useable. One was flying over the parade as ISIS had their parade down Main Street. Multiple other vehicles in the parade too. Them the boxes of brand new rifles they left. It was ridiculous. Those weapons are also being sold to get money to purchase other weapons when they decide to ramp up again.
All these wars that have been started on Bidens watch. The lie you parroted about nobody in a war zone or however it was said. What about the many rockets and drones that were launched at bases we had service people in. He finally bombed any empty storage shed in response. He did very little with these attacks. Our Navy has the ability to track the movement ordinance back to its launch area and be very close. When they launched anything at our ships or any ship out there they should have sent a cruise missile right back at them. He gave those terrorists in Jordan the ability to launch anything they wanted and not worry about any response. Biden has been awful with foreign affairs and Harris is worse. She has no track record with foreign relations except these last few years. She was horrible word salad and the annoying cackle. She made a fool of herself on some of those stages.
Then we have the most idiotic nuclear agreement with Iran. She will reinstate that and give them carte Blanche to do what they want. Biden telling Israel not to hit the nuclear sites is stupid. They need to bomb those places whenever they get close or have enough equipment to start refining to get it to military grade and build a bomb. Israel will not be safe if and when they get the fuel refined and build a bomb.
There is so many more failures we have had on the world stage. Countries are laughing at us. They have shows that are made about the stupid stuff this administration has done and said. From the peaceful protest with cars and buildings on fire behind them to arresting people on a sidewalk who were kneeling and praying. They were the trouble makers in the riots. Then Kamala starting a fund to pay legal fees for the few rioters they did arrest. There is so much more but a Harris administration will be the end of the US as we know it. We will not be the world currency anymore China will take that away.
Trump has never been my first pick for President. I thought it was a joke when he first started running. He was a better choice than Clinton. She still thinks she is relevant she is not. She should be in jail or the media should have torn her apart with the Russian hoax. Now he is way more qualified than Harris. Look at how many illegal aliens she let across the border and how many are criminals and raped and or killed girls here. She was the border Czar the media even called her that. Then when the border got so bad the media finally started covering it. All of the sudden she was never the border Czar and the media has parroted that lie too. Biden undid all the things Trump did to close the border on day one. Then blamed Trimp for it. Everything has been Trumps fault. From the border to inflation and gas prices. Them giving Iran the $12 billion dollars was stupid. They have to use it for food and meds. But then the money they were using can go back to their proxies in munitions or cash to pay them. Biden/Harris has been so bad and the media has covered for them all along the way. We can’t have 4 more years of this.
This is my last paragraph I applaud you if you are still here. I need to talk about Jan 6th. It was a sad time for America. Some of those guys were absolutely in the wrong. There were a lot of them that were peaceful and even being escorted on a tour buy Capitol Police. That doesn’t excuse the guys that were destructive. I also do not think you can blame their actions all on Trump. He said peaceful. I watched the speech because I thought it odd he was giving a speech at that time. He should have told them all to go home earlier. That was unfortunate he allowed them to go as long as he did. Also only 1 person was murdered on Jan 6. The lady was unarmed and not a physical threat. She was shot for no reason and nothing was done to the shooter. Jan 6th should never have happened it was very unfortunate and a sad day. Trump is a boaster and exaggerates a lot. Biden is in the back pocket of many of these leaders causing problems around the world. I would imagine he got Harris into some of those pockets also. We just can’t trust Harris to make a stand against our enemies. She learned from Biden how to let terror groups fire rockets missiles and drones at us with no retaliation. How to do so many other things wrong.
Wrong
Kamala the Rug in the CCP pocket Harris is an American traitor.
We need a leader not a door Matt.
Dear Mr. Schneider
What are the reasons for tje various beliefs that you express in this article?
Cordially,
Terry Oldberg
Engineer/Scientist/Public Policy Researcher
Los Altos Hills, California
He reads CNN. That’s why.
I would guess MSNBC that station is a total joke. The garbage they feed people is ridiculous.