Tsai-McCarthy + Military Drills

What was the PRC reaction and what does this all mean?

Last week Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen and US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy met at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Los Angeles. The CCP was bound to have strong feelings about the meetup, and comparisons to then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan last August, predictably, proliferated.

In this post we detail:

• Tsai’s LA itinerary;

• What the CCP and Chinese netizens are saying;

• And what PLA military exercises have entailed so far.

What Happened?

After wrapping up in Belize, Tsai landed in Los Angeles on Tuesday, April 4. American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) Chair Laura Rosenberger and Taiwan Representative to the US Hsiao Bi-khim 蕭美琴 boarded her plane — meaning they flew from New York to Los Angeles since Tsai’s visit to the east coast at the end of March.

On the morning of Wednesday, April 5, Tsai and McCarthy met in front of the Reagan Library before heading inside. After their chat, Tsai gave a six-minute public speech, backdropped by the Air Force One Pavilion, saying in part,

However, it is no secret that today, the peace that we have maintained and the democracy which we have worked hard to build are facing unprecedented challenges. We once again find ourselves in a world where democracy is under threat, and the urgency of keeping the beacon of freedom shining cannot be understated. President Reagan said it best: “Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. It must be fought for and defended constantly by each generation.”

…

Taiwan strives to be a reliable partner to the world, a cornerstone for stability in the region, and a force for good. There is a saying in the Confucian Analects: “One who is virtuous will not stand alone.” In our efforts to protect our way of life, Taiwan is grateful to have the United States of America by our side. As we confront the unique challenges of our time, let us be mindful of the principles that have forged our great partnership and bear in mind the lessons of President Reagan’s enduring legacy.

The chairman and ranking member of the House Select Committee on the CCP, Mike Gallagher and Raja Krishnamoorthi, also attended meetings with Tsai at the Reagan Library. In the afternoon, Krishnamoorthi spoke to the press:

We want to be … firm in the conviction that freedom is not the prerogative of a chosen few, but rather an entitlement of all of God’s children. In that regard, Taiwan deserves to be free, Taiwan’s people deserve freedom — and they have earned that right.

Both supporters and opponents of Tsai and McCarthy’s meetup made significant showings. The pro-China protestors consisted of both overseas Chinese as well as some American civil-society organizations. A post authored by Sohu 搜狐 user 立马看世界 — a lecturer at the School of Communications and Journalism of Jinan University in Guangzhou (not to be confused with the University of Jinan in Shandong or National Chi Nan University in Nantou, Taiwan) — described some of the pro-China protests at the scene:

When Tsai Ing-wen and McCarthy met, a small airplane suddenly appeared in the sky pulling a huge English banner [which read], “ONE CHINA! TAIWAN IS A PART OF CHINA!” In addition, when Tsai Ing-wen arrived at the hotel she was staying at, roughly 200 people “welcomed” her, but the number of people who came to protest exceeded 300. Some of them held high the PRC national flag [and] banners and placards which were anti-Taiwan and berated Tsai Ing-wen — overwhelming the crowd that “welcomed” Tsai Ing-wen.

Notable mentions among Taiwan’s supporters: in the middle of a Fox News interview, a man holding a sign reading “Xi Jinping, f**k your mom” walked directly in front of the camera; and the “bilingual rapper and comedian” LeLeFarley 樂樂法利 approached pro-China protestors to ask where he could collect his payment after the protests concluded. For an excellent collage of (mostly) Taiwan supporters, see this thread posted by Christine Lu.

Later on April 5, Tsai attended an expat banquet, where she as well as Hsiao Bi-khim delivered prepared remarks. In attendance at the banquet were Laura Rosenberger; US House Representatives Brad Sherman, Darrell Issa, Judy Chu 趙美心, Ro Khanna, and Michelle Steel; and California State Assemblyman Tri Ta.

It’s unclear at this point whether Tsai met with tech and entertainment executives in Los Angeles. Although meetings in California between lawmakers and executives did occur, neither Tsai’s office nor other media have reported that Tsai was also in attendance.

Also of note: Taiwan Foreign Minister Joseph Wu 吳釗燮 met with former US National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien in Los Angeles, per an April 6 tweet.

By the evening of April 7, Tsai had returned to Taiwan — but just hours later met with a delegation headed by Representative Michael McCaul, now serving as chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. Representatives Young Kim, Ami Bera, French Hill, Guy Reschenthaler, Madeleine Dean, Michael Lawler, and Nathaniel Moran, as well as AIT Director Sandra Oudkirk, were also part of the delegation.

And since our post last week, we’ve learned that, at her hotel in New York, Tsai met with Senators Dan Sullivan, Joni Ernst, and Mark Kelly. And House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries released a statement about his quiet meeting with Tsai in New York: they discussed “the mutual security and economic interests between America and Taiwan” and “our shared commitment to democracy and freedom.”

What Is the PRC Saying Now?

April 6 was a busy day for PRC government agencies: four of them — the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA), the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National People’s Congress (NPC), the Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) of the State Council, and the Ministry of Defense (MOD) — issued press releases in response to Tsai and McCarthy’s meeting.

The MFA’s statement, interestingly, made no mention of any countermeasures that would be undertaken:

Recently, the American side showed no consideration to the Chinese side’s solemn representations and repeated warnings — [the US was] determined to allow the leader of the Taiwan region, Tsai Ing-wen, to “transit” through America [“过境”窜美]. The third-highest figure in the US government, House Speaker McCarthy, and Tsai had a high-profile meeting together; US officials and members of Congress [also] met [with Tsai], providing a platform for Tsai to deliver “Taiwan independence” separatist remarks. The essence [of this all] is the US and Taiwan’s collusion with each other: using a “transit” as a pretense, [they] connive with “Taiwan independence” separatists to engage in political activities in America, carry out US-Taiwan official exchanges, [and] augment the core of the US-Taiwan relationship. This action seriously violates the one China principle and the provisions of the Three China-US Joint Communiqués, seriously harms the Chinese side’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, [and] sends out a gravely erroneous signal to “Taiwan independence” separatist forces. The Chinese side resolutely opposes and vehemently condemns this.

At a regular press conference, MFA spokeswoman Mao Ning 毛宁 repeated verbatim the bolded lines from above, and then concluded by, seemingly, filling in what the press release forgot to include:

China will take firm and forceful measures to resolutely defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The statement released by the NPC Foreign Affairs Committee, unsurprisingly, touched upon the international legal elements it thinks are most pertinent to Taiwan. (The NPC is China’s national-level legislative body.) Its statement mentions the 2005 Anti-Secession Law — Article 8 bestowed upon the PRC legal grounds to “employ non-peaceful means and other necessary measures to protect China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

The NPC’s statement also mentions two World War II–era treaties: the 1943 Cairo Declaration and the 1945 Potsdam Declaration. According to Cairo’s stipulations, “all the territories Japan has stolen from the Chinese, such as Manchuria, Formosa, and The Pescadores, shall be restored to the Republic of China”; and Potsdam reaffirms that “The terms of the Cairo Declaration shall be carried out.”

Interestingly, despite the “Republic of China” language, PRC officials and legal scholars generally like Cairo because, in their view, the PRC is the ROC’s “successor state.” For example, a 2000 PRC white paper stipulates, “On October 1, 1949, the Central People’s Government of the PRC was proclaimed, replacing the government of the Republic of China to become the only legal government of the whole of China and its sole legal representative in the international arena, thereby bringing the historical status of the Republic of China to an end.”

But that’s a rabbit hole for another time (stay tuned). The Foreign Affairs Committee’s statement is below:

There is only one China in the world, Taiwan is an inseparable part of China’s territory, and the government of the People’s Republic of China is the sole legal government representing the whole of China. A series of international legal documents — including the “Cairo Declaration” and the “Potsdam Proclamation” — have all made it clear that China has sovereignty over Taiwan. Taiwan has no other standing in international law except for being a part of China. House Speaker McCarthy is the US government’s third-highest figure — [his] conduct and deeds seriously violate the promises made by the American side to the Chinese side on the Taiwan issue, send out a gravely erroneous signal to “Taiwan independence” separatist forces, trample on historical facts and justice, [and] destroy the international rule of law.

China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity cannot tolerate encroachments [or] divisions. The “Anti-Secession Law” — drafted and implemented by the National People’s Congress — makes clear provisions about major issues such as upholding the one China principle, containing “Taiwan independence” separatism, [and] opposing external interference on the Taiwan issue. Any attempt to “use Taiwan to control China” [以台制华], support conniving with “Taiwan independence” separatist forces’ schemes will eventually fail. Any attempt to “coerce westerners in abetting independence” [挟洋谋独] [or] sabotage the path of the motherland’s unification will eventually be punished by law.

The TAO’s statement is unique in that it singles out the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) — the party to which Tsai Ing-wen belongs — in condemning their recent activities in the United States:

For a period of time, the DPP authorities misjudged the situation, mistakenly assuming that the China-US strategic contest … is an opportunity they can exploit [可乘之机] to even further, by any means necessary [不择手段], rope in external forces. [Moreover, the DPP] mistakenly assumed that, by clinging to a powerful America [抱住美国大腿], [they can] without restraint [肆无忌惮] pursue “independence” provocations and sell out national interests. The so-called “transit” is merely a pretense; seeking “independence” is its true nature.

Realizing the complete unification of the motherland is the common aspiration of all Chinese sons and daughters, and is the keystone [题中之义] of national rejuvenation. The motherland must be unified, and it will be unified. The wheel of history is rolling ahead — could it really be stopped by “Taiwan independence” separatist forces? Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP authorities stubbornly persist in their mistaken “Taiwan independence” standpoint and, for the sake of their own partisan interests, are willing to be the pawns of American anti-China forces that contain China. [They] can’t change the fact that Taiwan is a part of China — they will only push Taiwan toward risky conditions of “dangerous and frightening war” [兵凶战危] and bring the vast majority of Taiwan compatriots serious harm.

…

We are sternly warning the DPP authorities: completely abandon “Taiwan independence” machinations, [and] don’t stubbornly cling to the path [一条道走到黑] of “seeking independence via relying on America.” If not, any act of seeking “independence” will be smashed to pieces [粉身碎骨] under the powerful weight of the Chinese sons and daughters who oppose “independence” and promote unification.

Also, the TAO on April 7 sanctioned Hsiao Bi-khim, adding her to the list of “Taiwan independence diehards” (“台独”顽固分子) and banning her and her immediate family from visiting or doing business in the PRC. The thing is: the PRC applied the exact same sanctions to her last August. Hsaio could only say in response, “Wow, the PRC just sanctioned me again, for the second time.”

And the MOD issued a short statement, which concluded by saying,

The People’s Liberation Army [will] hold fast to its duty and mission, maintain a high level of alert at all times, firmly defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity, [and] safeguard peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.

Beyond the government statements — a plethora of high-notoriety netizens quickly chipped in. We’ve translated four of them for you.

Zhang Diancheng 张殿成, a columnist for the People’s Liberation Army Daily, wrote the following a few hours before the Tsai-McCarthy meeting. Posted on Sohu:

Objectively speaking, the mainland has already made dual-pronged preparations for US-Taiwan collusion and provocation. One the one hand, the mainland hopes — via exchange and dialogue with the American side — to urge the American side to halt any form of official contact with the Taiwan side; on the other hand, regarding American and Taiwanese infringements upon the “one China principle” bottom line, the mainland has completed preparations for a full-scale counterattack. For the last few days, the mainland has successively announced live-combat drills in the East China Sea and South China Sea, as well as launched a special joint inspection operation in the north and central waters of the Taiwan Strait — this means that the PLA is combat-ready, and has issued a strong warning signal: if US and Taiwan authorities refuse to come to their senses [执迷不悟] and even plan a McCarthy–Tsai Ing-wen meeting, the PLA [will] at a time of its choosing take practical actions to defend national sovereignty and interests.

However, military deterrence is just one kind of countermeasure which curbs US-Taiwan collusions and provocations as well as contains “Taiwan independence” separatist forces’ risky activities. In the future, the mainland will diversify the countermeasures it will adopt, including accelerating the reduction of the activities and living spaces of “Taiwan independence” forces, continuing to sell lots of US bonds, and vigorously promoting the progress of “opposing independence and promoting unification.” Therefore, the Taiwan authorities shouldn’t be happy too soon, mistakenly thinking that, with the US bolstering and supporting [Taiwan], they can avert strong counterattacks and punishments from the mainland.

Chen Fei 陈菲 is an assistant professor of international relations at Central China Normal University’s School of Politics and International Affairs; he’s also a prolific online commentator. On Sohu he posted the following:

The Chinese side’s counterattack measures are manifold — the main thing is that oral warnings and counterattack operations are running side by side. On the one hand, the mouthpieces of various departments have mobilized in full force: the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National People’s Congress, the Taiwan Affairs Office of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, the Ministry of Defense, and the consulate in the US have successively issued statements — emphasizing the serious damage that the McCarthy-Tsai meeting brought to China-US relations, cross-Strait relations, international law, and international standards, as well as the [meeting’s] serious consequences which may push the Taiwan Strait into a situation of “dangerous and frightening war.” [These agencies] dispatched the Chinese side’s most powerful speech to the American side and DPP authorities. On the other hand, according to a news release issued by the Fujian Maritime Safety Agency, the Coast Guard of mainland China will launch a three-day “special joint inspection operation” in the north and central waters of the Taiwan Strait, led by the Haixun 06 [海巡06] coast guard rescue ship (with a full-load displacement of 6,600 tons).

Meanwhile, the Shandong aircraft carrier formation cut across the Bashi Channel [巴士海峡] and the southeast waters of Taiwan island, conducting its first naval exercise in the western Pacific. What is worth mentioning: both the Chinese Coast Guard and Chinese Naval operations were carried out when Tsai Ing-wen fled to America and met with McCarthy — the purpose [of the operations] was extremely obvious.

The following is a commentary from “Jun Zhengping Studio” (钧正平) a social media content brand owned by the PLA News Media Center:

The US keeps on saying it wants to install “guardrails” in the China-US relationship — but then it collides full-speed into those “guardrails,” it says one thing and does another, betrays [our] trust, [and] time and again stirs up trouble on the Taiwan issue. [That all] completely exposes the “hegemonic delusion” [霸权妄想症] of the US.

The ridiculous thing is: if [you] hold tightly to the “Taiwan card,” [will you] be able to turn the tables against the wind [逆风翻盘], contain China, [or] maintain hegemony? The answer, obviously, is no. To the United States, Taiwan is just a tool in its geopolitical game — but to China, [Taiwan] is about rejuvenation and historical justice for our home and nation [家国大义]. Anyone [and] any force should not underestimate the firm determination, steadfast will, and powerful capabilities of the Chinese people to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity. No matter how much US politicians think through their schemes to “use Taiwan to control China,” it will only make people worldwide see yet more clearly the US’s impudence [and] expose the US’s true frailty. US politicians can’t shake China’s steady development by relying on “little tricks,” let alone hold back the historical trend of the motherland’s unification or the historical process of moving toward the Chinese nation’s great rejuvenation.

And finally — Zhang Hongliang 张宏良 is a lecturer at the Minzu University of China 中央民族大学 and a prominent Maoist commentator. He wrote,

Recently, the Democratic Party in the US has gone so far as to take Donald Trump, the former Republican President and 2024 presidential candidate, to court, showing the extent of the hostility and opposition between the two sides. However, on the issue of Taiwan independence, both parties have formed a consensus unprecedented in American history. The two parties will unanimously pass any bill without a hint of disagreement as long as it is a pro-Taiwan independence act aimed at disintegrating China.

This means that unless China takes countermeasures against the United States, it is now impossible to prevent the formal announcement of independence between the US and Taiwan. The military exercises we conducted last time in response to Pelosi's visit to Taiwan and the cruise around Taiwan we took today in response to McCarthy’s meeting with Tsai Ing-wen are no longer sufficient to deter Taiwan. Moreover, simply deterring Taiwan currently holds little significance. For years, we have been saying that our option to pursue reunification by force will not be aimed at Taiwan, but at foreign forces interfering in Taiwan. However, we have not taken any practical actions against the United States, which is manipulating Taiwan independence, but instead have only taken actions against Taiwan itself. If we only take actions against Taiwan, we will objectively push more and more Taiwanese people and people from around the world toward the position of Taiwan independence, ultimately putting our country in an increasingly passive situation. When a child brings outsiders to rob and divide our home, we should first repel the outsiders, and then discipline the child, rather than only targeting the child and allowing outsiders to divide our home. Otherwise, we may lose both the child and our home. 

…

If China continues to merely voice opposition without taking any countermeasures against the United States, it will be tantamount to accepting the reality of Taiwan independence. In human history, every country that has had its territory forcibly divided has expressed opposition verbally, but this has never had any real significance or impact. China must take countermeasures against the United States for tearing up the Shanghai Communique and brazenly promoting Taiwan independence. China should either immediately reclaim Taiwan by force or adopt the principle of reciprocity by severing diplomatic relations with the United States and returning to the state of China-US relations prior to 1972.

So, Those Military Drills…

As duly noted by the netizen commentators above, the PRC indeed responded to Tsai and McCarthy’s meeting with some military maneuvers — notably, the patrols of the Haixun 06 and the Shandong aircraft carrier, as well as live-fire exercises on Pingtan Island 平潭岛.

Even so, the military response this time around — compared to Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan last August — is unambiguously less severe. And as well-documented by Jackie Singh, the rhetoric blasted by various media outlets and Twitter users is seriously misleading, if not totally inaccurate.

For example, many outlets have reported that “Taiwan is encircled” by the PLA — yet many of them use a graphic that was made last August to illustrate the PLA’s encirclement post-Pelosi. Other new outlets report that the PLA conducted live-fire drills “near” Taiwan. While not technically inaccurate — it’s true that Pingtan is closer to Taiwan than, say, Japan — that language elides the fact that Pingtan is basically connected to mainland China (see the red sliver in the above graphic). Live-fire exercises on Pingtan may as well be live-fire exercises on a beach in Wenzhou.

What could explain the different military response? One possible answer: compared to Pelosi’s visit last year, the CCP felt they had more breathing room this time.

Writing for the South China Morning Post three days before the Tsai-McCarthy meetup, Alice Wu implied that the Tsai administration and former Taiwan president Ma Ying-Jeou 馬英九 intentionally synched their visits — Tsai to the US and Ma to mainland China — to temper the CCP’s ire:

The timing of Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s 10-day trip abroad was definitely not left to mere chance.

Tsai’s trip to Central America has facilitated stops in the United States that Washington denies violate the “one-China” policy. At the same time, her predecessor Ma Ying-jeou is making a historic 12-day visit to mainland China.

While this is Tsai’s seventh “transit” through the US since taking office in 2016 and most likely her last, Ma’s mainland visit is the first by a former Taiwanese leader since the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949. This is one of the most highly orchestrated balancing acts in cross-strait relations.

Having Tsai’s US “stopover”, which was bound to trigger an angry response from Beijing, overlap with Ma’s peace-talking mainland visit, during which he will pay his respects to his ancestors during the annual tomb-sweeping Ching Ming Festival, is an incredible feat pulled off by the Tsai-Ma tag team to avoid a worst-case scenario.

And in the original Financial Times article last month which broke the news of Tsai and McCarthy’s plans, Kathrin Hille and Demetri Sevastopulo wrote,

Several people familiar with the situation said Tsai and McCarthy had agreed to meet in the US because of Taiwanese security concerns.

…

A senior Taiwanese official said Tsai’s administration had provided McCarthy’s team with “some intelligence about what the Chinese Communist party is recently up to and the kinds of threats they pose”.

The official added that China was “not in a good situation”.

So perhaps the military reaction has been relatively muted thus far (*fingers crossed*) because Tsai and McCarthy’s concession, so to speak, in meeting in California — not Taiwan — coupled with a face-saving and historic visit by Ma to mainland China allowed the CCP to frame this year’s outcome as a win.

Even so, McCarthy hasn’t ruled out visiting Taiwan himself while Speaker: “I am the Speaker of the House. There is no place that China is going to tell me where I can go or who I can speak to.” Sadly, it’s hard to imagine the CCP not responding with military drills should McCarthy visit Taiwan — but as he told the press on the afternoon of April 5, “Communication matters, regardless of whether people have differences of opinion. And I think today is going to foster greater peace long-term.”