In spite of the reported $1.4tn in state money committed to making a self-reliant chip ecosystem a reality, of late some major Chinese companies have hit serious stumbling blocks.
TL;DR - China's own arrogant international conduct that has resulted in significant geopolitical barriers for its fledgeling semiconductor industry. The impact across the supply chain will vary. China's prospects in IC design are blocked by US' control of EDA tools; manufacturing prospects can be constrained by lack of access to EUV, and by Japanese dominance over photoresists, wafers, and etching gas. The key point is that if US-China relations continue to be confrontational, China's semiconductor industry will be forced to play an expensive catch-up game.
Hi Jordan, as usual, an excellent edition.
My takeaways on China's semiconductor industry are slightly different. Had written about it here: https://www.scmp.com/tech/article/3109569/chinas-semiconductor-gold-rush-reality-check
TL;DR - China's own arrogant international conduct that has resulted in significant geopolitical barriers for its fledgeling semiconductor industry. The impact across the supply chain will vary. China's prospects in IC design are blocked by US' control of EDA tools; manufacturing prospects can be constrained by lack of access to EUV, and by Japanese dominance over photoresists, wafers, and etching gas. The key point is that if US-China relations continue to be confrontational, China's semiconductor industry will be forced to play an expensive catch-up game.
thanks for this pranay! good piece. largely agree w your analysis, I was thinking more 15-20 years out
have you had a chat with GS and the shakti processor folks?