Oh dear. I don't think you are thinking in the correct way; a bit Beltway? You can't outcompete China technically, they produce more graduate engineers annually than you have got. And you can't easily recreate the industries you have lost, or the skills of the workforce at all levels. Fit in with that in the best way possible. That's what we in Britain did when we passed the torch to you all - with many errors of course. Good luck!
While it might seem to be a matter of semantics (it's not), I prefer to use "advanced AI" rather than AGI. Mostly for the reasons you raise. It's fine for the AI research community. It doesn't mean much for the DoD. It tends to lead people down the deus ex machina wonder weapon path, which is fraught, to say the least.
Unfortunately, despite all the excellent military and industrial policy advice proffered, you both hit on the critical policy shortcoming we're facing today: "it is still very unclear just what this president’s stance towards China and Chinese territorial aggression is going to be."
I don’t know how exactly to put this but I’ve noticed a trend in the past few months where a lot of the Substack writers and podcasters I follow are recommending Biden++ policies vis-a-vis China. Noah Smith just wrote an article talking about tariff competition which is basically just Jake Sullivan 2.0 stuff, Ezra Klein is hawking “Abundance” which is just super neoliberalism and Tony Stark (who I really like) sounds like it’s 2023 still.
I think folks need to log off, get a cabin in the woods for a long weekend, drop some acid, and try to see 2025 with some new eyes. There’s not going to be a CHIPS Act in a year, we might not even have NATO, we’re probably going to be in a recession behind some very high semi-permanent tariff walls. I don’t love those things but I think we should assume that’s the new baseline and go from there. /rant
Oh dear. I don't think you are thinking in the correct way; a bit Beltway? You can't outcompete China technically, they produce more graduate engineers annually than you have got. And you can't easily recreate the industries you have lost, or the skills of the workforce at all levels. Fit in with that in the best way possible. That's what we in Britain did when we passed the torch to you all - with many errors of course. Good luck!
So many gems in this one, thanks.
While it might seem to be a matter of semantics (it's not), I prefer to use "advanced AI" rather than AGI. Mostly for the reasons you raise. It's fine for the AI research community. It doesn't mean much for the DoD. It tends to lead people down the deus ex machina wonder weapon path, which is fraught, to say the least.
Unfortunately, despite all the excellent military and industrial policy advice proffered, you both hit on the critical policy shortcoming we're facing today: "it is still very unclear just what this president’s stance towards China and Chinese territorial aggression is going to be."
I don’t know how exactly to put this but I’ve noticed a trend in the past few months where a lot of the Substack writers and podcasters I follow are recommending Biden++ policies vis-a-vis China. Noah Smith just wrote an article talking about tariff competition which is basically just Jake Sullivan 2.0 stuff, Ezra Klein is hawking “Abundance” which is just super neoliberalism and Tony Stark (who I really like) sounds like it’s 2023 still.
I think folks need to log off, get a cabin in the woods for a long weekend, drop some acid, and try to see 2025 with some new eyes. There’s not going to be a CHIPS Act in a year, we might not even have NATO, we’re probably going to be in a recession behind some very high semi-permanent tariff walls. I don’t love those things but I think we should assume that’s the new baseline and go from there. /rant